International accounts of the Republic of Moldova for Q II 2016 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments
In Q II 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 92.21 million (down by 27.4 percent as compared to April-June 2015), the capital account registered a negative balance of US$ 11.76 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 49.56 million. The international investment position remained net debit totaling US$ -5,805.60 million, while the gross external reached US$ 6,389.72 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
UM
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
Q I
|
Q II
|
Q III
|
Q IV
|
Q I
|
Q II
|
Q III
|
Q IV
|
Q I
|
Q II
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
MDL million
|
21,533
|
26,343
|
34,215
|
29,958
|
24,462
|
28,595
|
35,995
|
33,117
|
27,097
|
31,434
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
US$ million
|
1,608
|
1,926
|
2,435
|
1,995
|
1,359
|
1,577
|
1,875
|
1,663
|
1,350
|
1,588
|
GDP, physical volume indices
|
%
|
103.8
|
104.4
|
106.0
|
104.4
|
104.8
|
102.5
|
96.3
|
96.7
|
100.8
|
101.8
|
Exports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
106
|
113
|
98
|
100
|
106
|
107
|
96
|
97
|
90
|
99
|
Exports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
92
|
97
|
95
|
89
|
80
|
79
|
84
|
89
|
95
|
98
|
Imports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
100
|
98
|
99
|
104
|
101
|
96
|
95
|
91
|
104
|
107
|
Imports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
98
|
100
|
97
|
92
|
79
|
79
|
78
|
78
|
88
|
93
|
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index)
|
%
|
93.9
|
97.0
|
97.9
|
96.7
|
101.3
|
100.0
|
107.7
|
114.1
|
108.0
|
105.4
|
Period average exchange rate
|
MDL/
USD
|
13.3875
|
13.6771
|
14.0539
|
15.0185
|
17.9989
|
18.1309
|
19.1982
|
19.9112
|
20.0737
|
19.7957
|
Personal remittances / GDP
|
%
|
24.6
|
27.0
|
23.0
|
22.0
|
23.4
|
23.9
|
19.5
|
21.3
|
21.5
|
21.3
|
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP
|
%
|
8.8
|
0.4
|
4.0
|
5.3
|
10.9
|
4.9
|
-0.9
|
1.5
|
2.9
|
0.2
|
Sources: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account
|
2015
|
2016
|
Sem. I 2015
|
Sem. I 2016
|
Change in share
|
Q I
|
Q II
|
Q III
|
Q IV
|
Q I
|
Q II
|
Q II 2016 /
Q Ii 2015
|
%
|
p. p.
|
Current account / GDP
|
-10.2
|
-8.1
|
-6.6
|
-1.9
|
-7.0
|
-5.8
|
-9.0
|
-6.4
|
2.3
|
Trade balance / GDP
|
-34.8
|
-31.3
|
-27.9
|
-28.1
|
-30.6
|
-30.1
|
-32.9
|
-30.4
|
1.2
|
Exports of goods and services / GDP
|
43.9
|
40.0
|
31.2
|
39.9
|
39.1
|
39.2
|
41.8
|
39.2
|
-0.8
|
Imports of goods and services / GDP
|
78.7
|
71.3
|
59.1
|
68.0
|
69.7
|
69.3
|
74.7
|
69.5
|
-2.0
|
Primary income balance / GDP
|
7.0
|
4.6
|
7.1
|
9.0
|
6.4
|
7.5
|
5.7
|
7.0
|
2.9
|
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which:
|
13.6
|
13.9
|
11.3
|
12.0
|
11.5
|
11.8
|
13.8
|
11.7
|
-2.1
|
Compensation of employees / GDP
|
12.9
|
13.4
|
10.9
|
11.6
|
11.0
|
11.3
|
13.1
|
11.2
|
-2.1
|
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which:
|
6.6
|
9.3
|
4.2
|
3.0
|
5.1
|
4.4
|
8.1
|
4.7
|
-4.9
|
Investment income / GDP
|
5.3
|
7.9
|
3.1
|
1.7
|
3.8
|
3.2
|
6.7
|
3.5
|
-4.7
|
Secondary income balance / GDP
|
17.6
|
18.7
|
14.2
|
17.1
|
17.2
|
16.8
|
18.2
|
17.0
|
-1.8
|
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which:
|
20.0
|
21.0
|
16.2
|
19.3
|
19.4
|
18.9
|
20.5
|
19.1
|
-2.1
|
Personal transfers / GDP
|
12.6
|
12.7
|
10.3
|
11.6
|
12.3
|
11.8
|
12.6
|
12.0
|
-0.9
|
Current international cooperation / GDP
|
3.6
|
3.0
|
2.4
|
3.2
|
3.0
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
2.7
|
-0.5
|
Secondary income outflow / GDP
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
2.1
|
-0.3
|
Capital account / GDP
|
-0.3
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
-0.8
|
-0.7
|
0.1
|
-0.8
|
-1.3
|
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP
|
-10.5
|
-7.5
|
-6.0
|
-1.4
|
-7.8
|
-6.5
|
-8.9
|
-7.1
|
1.0
|
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
|
2015
|
2016
|
Sem. I 2015
|
Sem. I 2016
|
Change in share
|
Q I
|
Q II
|
Q III
|
Q IV
|
Q I
|
Q II
|
Q II 2016 /
Q II 2015
|
% to GDP
|
p. p.
|
Financial account
|
-14.8
|
-7.9
|
-4.9
|
-1.5
|
-3.8
|
-3.1
|
-11.1
|
-3.4
|
4.8
|
Direct investment, of which:
|
-10.6
|
-4.9
|
0.8
|
-1.3
|
-2.3
|
0.4
|
-7.5
|
-0.9
|
5.3
|
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings
|
-0.8
|
-1.0
|
-0.7
|
-0.9
|
-0.7
|
-0.4
|
-0.9
|
-0.5
|
0.6
|
Reinvestment of earnings
|
-3.2
|
-5.2
|
-0.8
|
1.0
|
-1.6
|
-1.1
|
-4.2
|
-1.3
|
4.1
|
Debt instruments
|
-6.6
|
1.3
|
2.4
|
-1.4
|
|
1.8
|
-2.4
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives
|
-0.1
|
-0.1
|
|
|
|
|
-0.1
|
|
0.1
|
Other investment, of which:
|
19.0
|
-3.5
|
-4.9
|
-1.0
|
-0.3
|
-13.7
|
6.9
|
-7.5
|
-10.2
|
Currency and deposits
|
19.0
|
-2.1
|
-0.2
|
-0.8
|
-1.7
|
-13.6
|
7.7
|
-8.1
|
-11.6
|
Loans
|
1.8
|
0.7
|
-2.3
|
-0.8
|
2.0
|
-0.4
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
-1.1
|
Trade credit and advances
|
-1.8
|
-2.2
|
-2.5
|
0.5
|
-0.7
|
0.3
|
-2.0
|
-0.1
|
2.5
|
Other accounts payable / receivable
|
0.1
|
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
Change in reserve assets
|
-23.0
|
0.6
|
-0.9
|
0.8
|
-1.2
|
10.2
|
-10.3
|
5.0
|
9.6
|
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position
|
UM
|
31.12.
2012
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12.
2015
|
31.03.
2016
|
30.06.
2016
|
Q II 2016/ Q I 2016 (%)
|
Net international investment position
|
US$ million
|
-5,085.32
|
-5,346.05
|
-5,598.11
|
-5,653.75
|
-5,752.81
|
-5,805.60
|
100.9
|
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
41.1
|
43.0
|
39.9
|
37.1
|
36.6
|
36.0
|
-0.6 p.p.
|
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities
|
US$ million
|
3,466.67
|
3,620.97
|
3,613.78
|
3,466.07
|
3,490.40
|
3,501.26
|
100.3
|
Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
40.1
|
38.6
|
38.8
|
38.6
|
38.5
|
38.6
|
0.2 p.p.
|
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
35.0
|
34.5
|
32.9
|
32.7
|
32.5
|
32.4
|
-0.1 p.p.
|
Stock of reserve assets
|
US$ million
|
2,515.00
|
2,820.63
|
2,156.63
|
1,756.81
|
1,746.33
|
1,874.60
|
107.3
|
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months)
|
months
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
4.4
|
4.8
|
4.9
|
5.3
|
108.0
|
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
UM
|
31.12.
2012
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12.
2015
|
31.03.
2016
|
30.06.
2016
|
Q II 2016/ Q I 2016 (%)
|
Gross external debt
|
US$ million
|
6,019.84
|
6,674.38
|
6,570.26
|
6,345.43
|
6,407.99
|
6,389.72
|
99.7
|
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt
|
US$ million
|
1,762.57
|
1,774.93
|
1,731.05
|
1,702.04
|
1,708.97
|
1,704.99
|
99.8
|
Long-term external debt
|
US$ million
|
4,698.20
|
5,003.79
|
5,012.32
|
4,909.52
|
4,934.76
|
4,894.53
|
99.2
|
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt
|
%
|
29.3
|
26.6
|
26.3
|
26.8
|
26.7
|
26.7
|
|
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt
|
%
|
78.0
|
75.0
|
76.3
|
77.4
|
77.0
|
76.6
|
-0.4 p.p.
|
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations
|
%
|
48.0
|
44.9
|
43.7
|
43.0
|
42.9
|
42.6
|
-0.3 p.p.
|
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt
|
%
|
190.3
|
168.8
|
138.4
|
122.3
|
118.5
|
125.4
|
6.9 p.p.
|
Balance of payments for Q II 2016 (preliminary data)
International investment position at the end of Q II 2016 (preliminary data)
External debt at the end of Q II 2016 (preliminary data)
Time series on balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt (BPM5) – from 2001, external debt (BPM6) – from 2009:
Balance of payments (BPM6)
External debt
Balance of payments
International investment position
External debt