International accounts for 2016 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments [1]
According to preliminary data, in 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 276.58 million (down by 33.3 percent as compared to 2015), the capital account registered a deficit of US$ 46.71 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 289.99 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -5,979.23 million at the end of 2016, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,594.69 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
U.M. |
2015 |
QI 2016 |
QII 2016 |
QIII 2016 |
QIV 2016 |
2016 |
|
Gross domestic product in current prices |
MDL million |
122,563 |
27,097 |
31,434 |
39,749 |
36,196 |
134,477 |
Gross domestic product in current prices |
US$ million |
6,514 |
1,350 |
1,588 |
2,009 |
1,807 |
6,750 |
GDP, physical volume indices |
% |
99.6 |
100.8 |
101.8 |
106.3 |
106.5 |
104.1 |
Exports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
101 |
90 |
99 |
121 |
123 |
n.a. |
Exports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
83 |
95 |
98 |
96 |
96 |
n.a. |
Imports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
95 |
104 |
107 |
112 |
111 |
n.a. |
Imports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
79 |
88 |
93 |
94 |
99 |
n.a. |
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index) |
% |
105.1 |
108.0 |
105.4 |
101.8 |
96.8 |
n.a. |
Period average exchange rate |
MDL/USD |
18.8161 |
20.0737 |
19.7957 |
19.7896 |
20.0363 |
19.9238 |
Personal remittances / GDP |
% |
21.7 |
21.5 |
22.1 |
17.6 |
19.3 |
19.9 |
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP |
% |
3.6 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
3.4 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
Sources: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account (BPM6)
|
2015 |
QI 2016 |
QII 2016 |
QIII 2016 |
QIV 2016 |
2016 |
Change in share 2016 / 2015 |
% |
p.p.* |
||||||
Current account / GDP |
-6.4 |
-5.9 |
-4.8 |
-4.9 |
-1.2 |
-4.1 |
2.3 |
Trade balance / GDP |
-30.0 |
-30.6 |
-30.3 |
-23.6 |
-26.4 |
-27.3 |
2.7 |
Exports of goods and services / GDP |
38.0 |
39.0 |
39.0 |
33.7 |
42.7 |
38.4 |
0.4 |
Imports of goods and services / GDP |
68.0 |
69.6 |
69.3 |
57.3 |
69.1 |
65.8 |
-2.3 |
Primary income balance / GDP |
7.0 |
6.8 |
8.1 |
5.2 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
-0.3 |
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
12.5 |
11.5 |
12.2 |
10.4 |
10.4 |
11.0 |
-1.5 |
Compensation of employees / GDP |
12.0 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.6 |
-1.4 |
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which: |
5.5 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
5.2 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
-1.1 |
Investment income / GDP |
4.2 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
2.6 |
3.4 |
-0.8 |
Secondary income balance / GDP |
16.6 |
17.9 |
17.3 |
13.5 |
18.3 |
16.6 |
-0.1 |
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
18.8 |
20.1 |
19.4 |
15.2 |
20.2 |
18.5 |
-0.3 |
Personal transfers / GDP |
11.6 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
9.5 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
-0.5 |
Current international cooperation / GDP |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
3.2 |
0.2 |
Secondary income outflow / GDP |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
-0.3 |
Capital account / GDP |
0.4 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
-0.4 |
-0.7 |
-1.1 |
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP |
-6.0 |
-6.7 |
-5.5 |
-5.8 |
-1.7 |
-4.8 |
1.2 |
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows, % to GDP
|
2015 |
QI 2016 |
QII 2016 |
QIII 2016 |
QIV 2016 |
2016 |
Change in share 2016 / 2015 |
% |
p.p.* |
||||||
Financial account |
-6.8 |
-10.8 |
-4.1 |
-4.3 |
0.4 |
-4.3 |
2.5 |
Direct investment, of which: |
-3.5 |
-2.4 |
0.3 |
-3.3 |
-0.8 |
-1.6 |
1.9 |
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings |
-0.9 |
-1.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
-1.1 |
-0.8 |
0.1 |
Reinvestment of earnings |
-1.9 |
-1.6 |
-1.1 |
-2.9 |
0.2 |
-1.4 |
0.5 |
Debt instruments |
-0.7 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other investment, of which: |
1.4 |
-7.2 |
-14.6 |
-15.0 |
-4.5 |
-10.5 |
-12.0 |
Currency and deposits |
3.2 |
-6.3 |
-10.3 |
-9.2 |
3.1 |
-5.6 |
-8.8 |
Loans |
-0.3 |
1.6 |
-0.3 |
-2.8 |
-5.2 |
-2.0 |
-1.7 |
Trade credit and advances |
-1.5 |
-2.6 |
-4.0 |
-3.0 |
-2.5 |
-3.0 |
-1.5 |
Other accounts receivable / payable |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Change in reserve assets |
-4.7 |
-1.2 |
10.2 |
14.0 |
5.7 |
7.9 |
12.6 |
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)
|
UM |
31.12. 2015 |
31.03. 2016 |
30.06. 2016 |
30.09. 2016 |
31.12. 2016 |
31.12.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%) |
Net international investment position |
US$ million |
-5,587.73 |
-5,823.93 |
-5,907.88 |
-6,051.80 |
-5,979.23 |
107.0 |
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
38.1 |
36.1 |
35.2 |
35.4 |
36.2 |
-1.9 p.p.* |
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities |
US$ million |
3,466.07 |
3,492.39 |
3,501.81 |
3,579.49 |
3,581.43 |
103.3 |
Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
38.4 |
38.3 |
38.4 |
38.2 |
38.2 |
-0.2 p.p. |
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
32.6 |
32.5 |
32.2 |
32.1 |
32.0 |
-0.6 p.p. |
Stock of reserve assets |
US$ million |
1,756.81 |
1,746.33 |
1,874.60 |
2,146.72 |
2,205.93 |
125.6 |
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months) |
months |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
125.4 |
*percentage points
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, end of period, US$ million
Note: STD – short-term debt, OPL – other portfolio liabilities, M2 – broad money, export-export of goods and services. Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals" [2], April 2015.
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
UM |
31.12. 2015 |
31.03. 2016 |
30.06. 2016 |
30.09. 2016 |
31.12. 2016 |
31.12.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%) |
Gross external debt |
US$ million |
6,381.24 |
6,436.60 |
6,438.72 |
6,609.15 |
6,594.69 |
103.3 |
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt |
US$ million |
1,702.04 |
1,708.97 |
1,704.98 |
1,776.96 |
1,778.90 |
104.5 |
Long-term external debt |
US$ million |
4,909.52 |
4,935.97 |
4,891.89 |
4,943.53 |
4,904.58 |
99.9 |
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt |
% |
26.7 |
26.6 |
26.5 |
26.9 |
27.0 |
0.3 p.p.* |
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt |
% |
76.9 |
76.7 |
76.0 |
74.8 |
74.4 |
-2.6 p.p. |
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations |
% |
43.3 |
43.0 |
42.7 |
43.4 |
43.5 |
0.2 p.p. |
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt |
% |
119.4 |
116.4 |
121.2 |
128.9 |
130.5 |
11.1 p.p. |
*percentage points
Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:
Balance of payments for 2016 (preliminary data) [3]
International investment position at the end of 2016 (preliminary data) [4]
External debt at the end of 2016 (preliminary data) [5]
Time series for balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt according to BPM5 – from 2001, according to BPM6 – from 2009:
Balance of payments (BPM6) [6]
External debt [7]
International investment position [9]
External debt [10]