The downward trend in the annual inflation rate from the end of the previous year continued in the first months of the current year.

The annual rate of core inflation will decline rapidly over the current year, then increase slightly by the end of the forecast horizon.

The current inflation forecast, compared to the previous inflation report, has been revised downwards for the first two consecutive quarters and for the last quarter of the comparable period and upwards for the rest of the period.

The current inflation forecast relative to that in the previous Inflation Report has been revised upwards through the first quarter of 2023 and downwards for the rest of the comparable period, except for the first quarter of 2024.

The annual inflation rate will increase until the third quarter of this year, after which it will follow a downward trend towards the end of the forecast horizon. In the second quarter of 2022, the inflation rate will continue to be above the upper limit of the variation range and will return into the range only in the last quarter of the forecast.

The annual rate of core inflation will have an upward trend during the current year, subsequently decreasing continuously until the end of the forecast period

The National Bank of Moldova has published the latest Inflation Report of this year. According to it, the average quarterly annual inflation rate increased to 4.9 percent and at the end of last quarter annual inflation was 6.7 percent.

The National Bank of Moldova will continue to carefully monitor the evolution of the consumer price index, the internal and external macroeconomic situation, and at the right time will come with the necessary measures to create monetary conditions to achieve its fundamental objective.

The document is a detailed analysis of macroeconomic developments in the internal and external environment and mainly concerns the inflationary process, economic activity and the conduct of monetary policy.

Annual inflation rate will decrease insignificantly in the current quarter, but, starting with the next quarter, will increase until the end of the forecast horizon, returning to the proximity of the inflation target.

The annual inflation rate will decline slightly until the end of the current year and, starting in the second quarter of next year, will increase to the target at the end of the forecast period.

The annual inflation rate will be relatively stable throughout the forecast period. Being in the lower half of the variation range, it will reach the target only in the middle of 2022.

In the first quarter of 2020, the annual inflation rate started a downward trajectory, decreasing from 7.5% in December 2019 to 5.9% in March 2020, due to the decrease in contributions from core inflation and food prices.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the annual inflation rate continued its upward trajectory since the beginning of 2019, increasing from 6.3% in September 2019 to 7.5% in December 2019. 

The current forecast of inflation is similar to the previous one for the first quarter of forecast and inferior for the rest of the compared period, except for the situation at the end of the period. 

In the second quarter of 2019, the annual rate of inflation continued its upward trajectory from the beginning of the current year, by increasing from 2.8% in March to 4.4% in June 2019.

The annual rate of inflation shall increase by the end of the current year, and afterwards, diminish by the end of forecast horizon.

The annual rate of inflation shall increase by the end of the current year, afterwards the trajectory will reverse and inflation will decrease by the end of the forecast horizon.

The annual inflation rate will decrease by the end of the current year (up to the value of 1.9%).

Over the next three quarters, the annual inflation rate will follow a downward trajectory and fall below the lower limit of the inflation variability interval, eventually reaching a level of 1.9% in the 4Q 2018. Later, the trajectory will reverse, with inflation returning within its variability interval in the 2Q 2019 and recording 6.5% in the 3Q 2019.