International accounts for Q I 2017 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments
According to preliminary data, in Q I 2017, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of 112.77 million (that worsened by 41.5 percent as compared to Q I 2016), the capital account registered a deficit of US$ 11.99 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 59.65 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -6,133.37 million at the end of the first quarter of 2017, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,688.60 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
UM
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
Q
|
I
|
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
I
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
MDL mill.
|
24,462
|
27,156
|
31,533
|
39,901
|
36,347
|
29,670
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
US$ mill.
|
1,359
|
1,353
|
1,593
|
2,016
|
1,814
|
1,487
|
GDP, physical volume indices
|
%
|
104.8
|
100.8
|
101.9
|
106.5
|
106.7
|
103.1
|
Exports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
106
|
90
|
99
|
121
|
123
|
128
|
Exports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
80
|
95
|
98
|
96
|
96
|
99
|
Imports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
101
|
104
|
107
|
112
|
111
|
120
|
Imports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
79
|
88
|
93
|
94
|
99
|
100
|
Terms of trade
|
%
|
101.3
|
108.0
|
105.4
|
101.8
|
96.8
|
99.7
|
Period average exchange rate
|
MDL/USD
|
17.9989
|
20.0737
|
19.7957
|
19.7896
|
20.0363
|
19.9556
|
Personal remittances / GDP
|
%
|
23.4
|
21.5
|
22.0
|
17.6
|
19.3
|
21.5
|
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP
|
%
|
10.9
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
3.3
|
0.9
|
2.8
|
Sourses: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account(BPM6)
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
I 2017 / I 2016
|
Q
|
Contribution
|
I
|
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
I
|
% to GDP
|
p. p.
|
Current account
|
-10.2
|
-5.9
|
-4.8
|
-4.9
|
-1.2
|
-7.6
|
-1.7
|
Trade balance
|
-34.8
|
-30.6
|
-30.2
|
-23.5
|
-26.3
|
-31.0
|
-0.4
|
Exports of goods and services
|
43.9
|
38.9
|
38.9
|
33.6
|
42.6
|
44.8
|
5.9
|
Imports of goods and services
|
78.7
|
69.5
|
69.0
|
57.1
|
68.8
|
75.8
|
6.3
|
Primary income balance
|
7.0
|
6.8
|
8.1
|
5.2
|
6.8
|
6.6
|
-0.2
|
Primary income inflow, of which:
|
13.6
|
11.5
|
12.2
|
10.3
|
10.4
|
12.0
|
0.5
|
Compensation of employees
|
12.9
|
11.0
|
11.7
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
11.5
|
0.6
|
Primary income outflow, of which:
|
6.6
|
4.7
|
4.1
|
5.2
|
3.5
|
5.4
|
0.7
|
Investment income
|
5.3
|
3.4
|
3.0
|
4.4
|
2.5
|
4.2
|
0.7
|
Secondary income balance
|
17.6
|
17.9
|
17.3
|
13.4
|
18.2
|
16.8
|
-1.1
|
Secondary income inflow, of which:
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
19.3
|
15.2
|
20.1
|
18.8
|
-1.2
|
Personal transfers
|
12.6
|
12.3
|
12.2
|
9.5
|
11.0
|
11.6
|
-0.7
|
Current international cooperation
|
3.6
|
2.9
|
2.7
|
2.0
|
5.0
|
2.4
|
-0.6
|
Secondary income outflow
|
2.4
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
-0.1
|
Capital account
|
-0.3
|
-0.8
|
-0.7
|
-0.9
|
-0.4
|
-0.8
|
0.0
|
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)
|
-10.5
|
-6.6
|
-5.5
|
-5.8
|
-1.6
|
-8.4
|
-1.8
|
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows, % to GDP
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
I 2017 /
IV 2016
|
Q
|
Contribution
|
I
|
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
I
|
% to GDP
|
p. p.
|
Financial account
|
-14.8
|
-10.8
|
-4.1
|
-4.3
|
0.4
|
-4.0
|
-4.4
|
Direct investment, of which:
|
-10.6
|
-2.4
|
0.3
|
-3.3
|
-0.8
|
-2.7
|
-1.9
|
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings
|
-0.8
|
-1.0
|
-0.4
|
-0.9
|
-1.1
|
-0.6
|
0.5
|
Reinvestment of earnings
|
-3.2
|
-1.6
|
-1.1
|
-2.9
|
0.2
|
-2.2
|
-2.4
|
Debt instruments
|
-6.6
|
0.2
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives
|
-0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
-0.1
|
-0.1
|
Other investment, of which:
|
19.0
|
-7.2
|
-14.5
|
-14.9
|
-4.5
|
-3.8
|
0.7
|
Currency and deposits
|
19.0
|
-6.2
|
-10.3
|
-9.2
|
3.1
|
-0.7
|
-3.8
|
Loans
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
-0.3
|
-2.8
|
-5.2
|
-0.3
|
4.9
|
Trade credit and advances
|
-1.8
|
-2.6
|
-4.0
|
-3.0
|
-2.5
|
-2.9
|
-0.4
|
Other accounts receivable / payable
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Change in reserve assets
|
-23.0
|
-1.1
|
10.2
|
14.0
|
5.7
|
2.5
|
-3.1
|
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12.
2015
|
31.12.
2016
|
31.03.
2017
|
31.03.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%)
|
Net IIP, US$ mill.
|
-5,346.05
|
-5,598.53
|
-5,587.73
|
-5,979.23
|
-6,133.37
|
102.6
|
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities, %
|
43.0
|
39.9
|
38.1
|
36.2
|
35.7
|
-0.5 p. p.
|
Stock of direct investment in domestic economy, US$ mill.
|
3,620.97
|
3,613.78
|
3,466.07
|
3,581.43
|
3,664.93
|
102.3
|
Share of FDI in the stock of foreign liabilities, %
|
38.6
|
38.8
|
38.4
|
38.2
|
38.4
|
0.2 p. p.
|
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities, %
|
34.5
|
32.9
|
32.6
|
32.0
|
31.9
|
-0.5 p. p.
|
Stock of official reserve assets, US$ mill.
|
2,820.63
|
2,156.63
|
1,756.81
|
2,205.93
|
2,256.45
|
102.3
|
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months), months
|
5.6
|
4.4
|
4.8
|
6.0
|
5.9
|
98.2
|
*percentage points
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at period-end, US$ million
Note: STD – short-term debt, OPL – other portfolio liabilities, M2 – broad money, export-export of goods and services. Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015:
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12.
2015
|
31.12.
2016
|
31.03.
2017
|
31.03.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%)
|
Gross external debt, US$ mill.
|
6,674.38
|
6,570.26
|
6,381.24
|
6,594.69
|
6,688.60
|
101.4
|
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt, US$ mill.
|
1,774.92
|
1,731.05
|
1,702.04
|
1,778.90
|
1,826.33
|
102.7
|
Long-term external debt, US$ mill.
|
5,003.79
|
5,012.32
|
4,909.52
|
4,904.58
|
4,939.57
|
100.7
|
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt, %
|
26.6
|
26.3
|
26.7
|
27.0
|
27.3
|
0.3 p. p.
|
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt, %
|
75.0
|
76.3
|
76.9
|
74.4
|
73.9
|
-0.5 p. p.
|
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations, %
|
44.9
|
43.7
|
43.3
|
43.4
|
43.6
|
0.2 p. p.
|
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt, %
|
168.8
|
138.4
|
119.4
|
130.5
|
129.0
|
-1.5 p. p.
|
Note: p. p. – percentage points
Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:
Time series for balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt according to BPM5 – from 2001, according to BPM6 – from 2009:
Balance of payments (BPM6)
External debt (BPM6)
Balance of payments
International investment position
External debt