International accounts for 2015 (final data) – all analytical comments
In 2015, the current account of the balance of payments of the Republic of Moldova recorded a deficit of US$ 414.84 million (down by 27.1% as compared to 2014), the capital account registered a surplus of US$ 22.88 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 443.72 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -5,654.17 million as of 31.12.2015, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,345.43 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
|
UM
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
MDL million
|
82,349
|
88,228
|
100,510
|
112,050
|
122,170
|
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
US$ million
|
7,016
|
7,284
|
7,983
|
7,981
|
6,493
|
|
GDP, physical volume indices
|
%
|
106.8
|
99.3
|
109.4
|
104.6
|
99.5
|
|
Exports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
134
|
101
|
113
|
102
|
101
|
|
Exports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
107
|
97
|
98
|
94
|
83
|
|
Imports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
122
|
101
|
106
|
101
|
95
|
|
Imports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
110
|
99
|
99
|
96
|
79
|
|
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index)
|
%
|
97.3
|
98.0
|
99.0
|
97.9
|
105.1
|
|
Period average exchange rate
|
MDL/USD
|
11.7370
|
12.1122
|
12.5907
|
14.0388
|
18.8161
|
|
Personal remittances / GDP
|
%
|
24.0
|
25.2
|
25.3
|
24.0
|
21.8
|
|
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP
|
%
|
5.0
|
3.9
|
3.6
|
4.4
|
3.6
|
Surse: BNM, BNS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account
|
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
Change in share
2015 / 2014
|
|
%
|
p.p.*
|
|
Current account / GDP
|
-12.1
|
-8.7
|
-6.5
|
-7.1
|
-6.4
|
0.7
|
|
Trade balance / GDP
|
-40.3
|
-40.6
|
-37.5
|
-36.6
|
-30.1
|
6.4
|
|
Exports of goods and services / GDP
|
39.1
|
37.2
|
38.0
|
37.0
|
38.1
|
1.1
|
|
Imports of goods and services / GDP
|
79.3
|
77.8
|
75.5
|
73.6
|
68.3
|
-5.3
|
|
Primary income balance / GDP
|
8.2
|
11.2
|
10.9
|
10.3
|
7.1
|
-3.3
|
|
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which:
|
13.3
|
14.4
|
14.6
|
14.0
|
12.6
|
-1.4
|
|
Compensation of employees / GDP
|
12.9
|
13.9
|
14.0
|
13.3
|
12.1
|
-1.2
|
|
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which:
|
5.1
|
3.2
|
3.6
|
3.7
|
5.5
|
1.9
|
|
Investment income / GDP
|
4.5
|
2.5
|
3.1
|
2.8
|
4.2
|
1.4
|
|
Secondary income balance / GDP
|
19.9
|
20.7
|
20.1
|
19.1
|
16.7
|
-2.4
|
|
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which:
|
21.5
|
22.3
|
21.7
|
21.0
|
18.9
|
-2.1
|
|
Personal transfers / GDP
|
12.9
|
13.4
|
13.4
|
12.7
|
11.7
|
-1.0
|
|
Current international cooperation / GDP
|
3.4
|
3.5
|
3.2
|
4.3
|
3.0
|
-1.3
|
|
Secondary income outflow / GDP
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
0.3
|
|
Capital account / GDP
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.7
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
-0.8
|
|
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP
|
-11.7
|
-8.4
|
-5.7
|
-5.9
|
-6.0
|
-0.1
|
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
|
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
Change in share
2015 / 2014
|
|
% to GDP
|
p.p.*
|
|
Financial account
|
-10.6
|
-6.7
|
-4.6
|
-7.1
|
-6.8
|
0.3
|
|
Direct investment, of which:
|
-4.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.1
|
-3.9
|
-3.5
|
0.4
|
|
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings
|
-1.8
|
-1.7
|
-1.7
|
-1.6
|
-0.9
|
0.7
|
|
Reinvestment of earnings
|
-1.2
|
0.2
|
-0.2
|
-0.4
|
-1.9
|
-1.5
|
|
Debt instruments
|
-1.5
|
-1.9
|
-1.2
|
-1.9
|
-0.7
|
1.2
|
|
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives
|
|
-0.3
|
-0.1
|
-0.2
|
|
0.2
|
|
Other investment, of which:
|
-10.1
|
-9.8
|
-4.8
|
3.8
|
1.4
|
-2.4
|
|
Currency and deposits
|
-3.1
|
-1.7
|
0.2
|
2.3
|
3.2
|
0.9
|
|
Loans
|
-5.2
|
-6.3
|
-2.1
|
0.1
|
-0.3
|
-0.4
|
|
Trade credit and advances
|
-1.9
|
-1.8
|
-1.7
|
-1.7
|
-1.5
|
0.2
|
|
Other accounts receivable / payable
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
-1.2
|
3.1
|
0.1
|
-3.0
|
|
Change in reserve assets
|
3.9
|
6.8
|
3.5
|
-6.7
|
-4.7
|
2.0
|
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)
|
|
UM
|
31.12.2011
|
31.12.2012
|
31.12.2013
|
31.12.2014
|
31.12.2015
|
2015 / 2014
(%)
|
|
Net international investment position
|
US$ million
|
-4,825.09
|
-5,085.32
|
-5,346.05
|
-5,598.53
|
-5,654.17
|
101.0
|
|
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
38.4
|
41.1
|
43.0
|
39.9
|
37.1
|
-2.8 p.p.*
|
|
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities
|
US$ million
|
3,261.06
|
3,466.67
|
3,620.97
|
3,613.78
|
3,466.07
|
95.9
|
|
Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
41.6
|
40.1
|
38.6
|
38.8
|
38.6
|
-0.3 p.p.
|
|
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
32.5
|
35.0
|
34.5
|
32.9
|
32.7
|
-0.2 p.p.
|
|
Stock of reserve assets
|
US$ million
|
1,965.32
|
2,515.00
|
2,820.63
|
2,156.63
|
1,756.81
|
81.5
|
|
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months)
|
months
|
4.2
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
4.4
|
4.8
|
107.8
|
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at year-end, US$ million
Note: Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf
*M2 – broad money; STD – short-term debt; OPL – other portfolio liabilities
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
|
UM
|
31.12.2011
|
31.12.2012
|
31.12.2013
|
31.12.2014
|
31.12.2015
|
2015 / 2014
(%)
|
|
Gross external debt
|
US$ million
|
5,359.35
|
6,019.84
|
6,674.38
|
6,570.26
|
6,345.43
|
96.6
|
|
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt
|
US$ million
|
1,521.35
|
1,762.57
|
1,774.92
|
1,731.05
|
1,702.04
|
98.3
|
|
Long-term external debt
|
US$ million
|
4,073.44
|
4,698.20
|
5,003.79
|
5,012.32
|
4,909.52
|
97.9
|
|
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt
|
%
|
28.4
|
29.3
|
26.6
|
26.3
|
26.8
|
0.5 p.p.*
|
|
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt
|
%
|
76.0
|
78.0
|
75.0
|
76.3
|
77.4
|
1.1 p.p.
|
|
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations
|
%
|
47.4
|
48.0
|
44.9
|
43.7
|
43.0
|
-0.7 p.p.
|
|
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt
|
%
|
152.8
|
190.3
|
168.8
|
138.4
|
122.3
|
-16.1 p.p.
|
*percentage points
Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:
Balance of payments for 2015 (final data)
International investment position at the end of 2015 (final data)
External debt at the end of 2015 (final data)
Time series are available starting from 1995 on the balance of payments according to BPM5 and from 2009 – according to BPM6, from 1998 for the international investment position (BPM5 only), from 2001 for the external debt according to BPM5 and from 2009 – according to BPM6:
Balance of payments (BPM6)
External debt (BPM6)
Balance of payments
International investment position
External debt
