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In Q III 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 97.16 million (down by 17.0% as compared to Q III 2015), the capital account registered a negative balance of US$ 17.42 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 68.93 million. The international investment position remained net debit totaling US$ -5,956.69 million, while the gross external debt reached US$ 6,510.49 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
UM |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
9 months |
||||
QIII |
QIII |
QI |
QII |
QIII |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
||
Gross domestic product in current prices |
MDL million |
34,215 |
35,995 |
27,097 |
31,434 |
39,749 |
81,723 |
89,052 |
98,281 |
Gross domestic product in current prices |
US$ million |
2,435 |
1,875 |
1,350 |
1,588 |
2,009 |
5,961 |
4,827 |
4,942 |
GDP, physical volume indices |
% |
106.0 |
96.3 |
100.8 |
101.8 |
106.3 |
104.7 |
100.5 |
103.3 |
Exports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
98 |
96 |
90 |
99 |
121 |
|
|
|
Exports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
95 |
84 |
95 |
98 |
96 |
|
|
|
Imports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
99 |
95 |
104 |
107 |
112 |
|
|
|
Imports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
97 |
78 |
88 |
93 |
94 |
|
|
|
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index) |
% |
97.9 |
107.7 |
108.0 |
105.4 |
101.8 |
|
|
|
Period average exchange rate |
MDL/USD |
14.0539 |
19.1982 |
20.0737 |
19.7957 |
19.7896 |
13.7086 |
18.4471 |
19.8860 |
Personal remittances / GDP |
% |
23.0 |
19.5 |
21.5 |
22.0 |
17.6 |
24.7 |
22.0 |
20.1 |
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP |
% |
4.0 |
-0.9 |
2.8 |
-0.2 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
2.1 |
Sources: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
Change in share |
||
QIII |
QIII |
QI |
QII |
QIII |
9 months |
9 months 2016 / |
|||
% |
p.p.* |
||||||||
Current account / GDP |
-4.3 |
-6.2 |
-6.0 |
-4.5 |
-4.8 |
-6.3 |
-7.9 |
-5.1 |
2.8 |
Trade balance / GDP |
-31.5 |
-27.9 |
-30.6 |
-29.9 |
-23.8 |
-35.6 |
-30.9 |
-27.6 |
3.3 |
Exports of goods and services / GDP |
29.6 |
31.2 |
39.0 |
39.3 |
33.5 |
36.2 |
37.5 |
36.9 |
-0.6 |
Imports of goods and services / GDP |
61.1 |
59.1 |
69.6 |
69.2 |
57.3 |
71.8 |
68.4 |
64.5 |
-3.9 |
Primary income balance / GDP |
9.4 |
7.5 |
6.4 |
8.0 |
5.3 |
10.1 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
0.1 |
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
13.2 |
11.3 |
11.5 |
12.2 |
10.4 |
14.3 |
12.8 |
11.3 |
-1.5 |
Compensation of employees / GDP |
12.6 |
10.9 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
9.9 |
13.7 |
12.2 |
10.8 |
-1.6 |
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which: |
3.8 |
3.8 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
6.4 |
4.8 |
-1.6 |
Investment income / GDP |
3.0 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
3.3 |
5.1 |
3.7 |
-1.4 |
Secondary income balance / GDP |
17.8 |
14.2 |
18.2 |
17.4 |
13.7 |
19.1 |
16.6 |
16.1 |
-0.5 |
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
19.4 |
16.2 |
20.3 |
19.4 |
15.5 |
20.9 |
18.8 |
18.1 |
-0.7 |
Personal transfers / GDP |
12.2 |
10.3 |
12.3 |
12.2 |
9.5 |
13.1 |
11.7 |
11.1 |
-0.6 |
Current international cooperation / GDP |
3.8 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
-0.5 |
Secondary income outflow / GDP |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
Capital account / GDP |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
-0.8 |
-1.1 |
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP |
-3.8 |
-5.7 |
-6.8 |
-5.2 |
-5.7 |
-5.3 |
-7.6 |
-5.9 |
1.7 |
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
Change in share |
||
QIII |
QIII |
QI |
QII |
QIII |
9 months |
9 months 2016 / |
|||
% to GDP |
p.p.* |
||||||||
Financial account |
-3.3 |
-4.9 |
-9.7 |
-2.6 |
-3.4 |
-4.7 |
-8.7 |
-4.9 |
3.8 |
Direct investment, of which: |
-3.4 |
0.8 |
-2.2 |
0.5 |
-3.3 |
-3.8 |
-4.3 |
-1.8 |
2.5 |
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
-1.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.8 |
-1.9 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
Reinvestment of earnings |
-1.6 |
-0.8 |
-1.6 |
-1.1 |
-2.9 |
-1.0 |
-2.9 |
-2.0 |
0.9 |
Debt instruments |
-1.2 |
2.4 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
0.4 |
-0.8 |
-0.5 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Other investment, of which: |
0.6 |
-4.9 |
-6.3 |
-13.3 |
-14.1 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
-11.7 |
-14.0 |
Currency and deposits |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
-6.3 |
-10.6 |
-9.4 |
1.8 |
4.6 |
-8.9 |
-13.5 |
Loans |
2.2 |
-2.3 |
1.8 |
-0.2 |
-2.7 |
1.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
Trade credit and advances |
-3.0 |
-2.5 |
-1.8 |
-2.5 |
-2.1 |
-2.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
|
Other accounts receivable / payable |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
||
Change in reserve assets |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
-1.2 |
10.2 |
14.0 |
-1.5 |
-6.6 |
8.7 |
15.3 |
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position
|
UM |
31.12. 2012 |
31.12. 2013 |
31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2015 |
31.03. 2016 |
30.06. 2016 |
30.09. 2016 |
30.09.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%) |
Net international investment position |
US$ million |
-5,085.32 |
-5,346.05 |
-5,598.53 |
-5,552.57 |
-5,772.44 |
-5,836.41 |
-5,956.69 |
107.3 |
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
41.1 |
43.0 |
39.9 |
38.2 |
36.3 |
35.4 |
35.8 |
-2.4 p.p.* |
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities |
US$ million |
3,466.67 |
3,620.97 |
3,613.78 |
3,466.07 |
3,489.31 |
3,496.92 |
3,575.20 |
103.1 |
Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
40.1 |
38.6 |
38.8 |
38.6 |
38.5 |
38.7 |
38.5 |
|
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
35.0 |
34.5 |
32.9 |
32.7 |
32.6 |
32.5 |
32.3 |
-0.4 p.p. |
Stock of reserve assets |
US$ million |
2,515.00 |
2,820.63 |
2,156.63 |
1,756.81 |
1,746.33 |
1,874.60 |
2,146.72 |
122.2 |
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months) |
months |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
6.0 |
125.0 |
*percentage points
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, end of period, US$ million
Note: Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf
*M2 – broad money; STD – short-term debt; OPL – other portfolio liabilities
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
UM |
31.12. 2012 |
31.12. 2013 |
31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2015 |
31.03. 2016 |
30.06. 2016 |
30.09. 2016 |
30.09.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%) |
Gross external debt |
US$ million |
6,019.84 |
6,674.38 |
6,570.26 |
6,345.43 |
6,386.93 |
6,346.07 |
6,510.49 |
102.6 |
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt |
US$ million |
1,762.57 |
1,774.92 |
1,731.05 |
1,702.04 |
1,708.97 |
1,704.98 |
1,776.96 |
104.4 |
Long-term external debt |
US$ million |
4,698.20 |
5,003.79 |
5,012.32 |
4,909.52 |
4,931.20 |
4,880.66 |
4,931.12 |
100.4 |
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt |
% |
29.3 |
26.6 |
26.3 |
26.8 |
26.8 |
26.9 |
27.3 |
0.5 p.p.* |
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt |
% |
78.0 |
75.0 |
76.3 |
77.4 |
77.2 |
76.9 |
75.7 |
-1.7 p.p. |
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations |
% |
48.0 |
44.9 |
43.7 |
43.0 |
42.9 |
42.7 |
43.2 |
0.2 p.p. |
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt |
% |
190.3 |
168.8 |
138.4 |
122.3 |
120.0 |
127.9 |
135.9 |
13.6 p.p. |
*percentage points
Balance of payments for Q III 2016 (preliminary data)
International investment position at the end of Q III 2016 (preliminary data)
External debt at the end of Q III 2016 (preliminary data)
Time series on balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt (BPM5) – from 2001, external debt (BPM6) – from 2009: